Donelson to Repeat?

After running simulations of 20 seasons, it appears that Donelson is the team to beat.  Donelson averaged just over 14 wins per season, including three undefeated seasons.  No other team managed a single undefeated season.

Buffalo looks to be a tough out, as well, averaging 12.4 wins per season, while winning producing a 13-win season most frequently.  Donelson also produced a 13-win season most frequently, along with Kansas at 13 wins most frequently.

San Pedro C will be nipping at the Warriors heels all season: San Pedro C finished with an average of 12 wins per season.  If the Corsairs are able to live up to these expectations, the pressure should be on Donelson all year.

Not far behind is Wausau – averaging 9.6 wins, but posting 11 most frequently.  Wausau had several seasons in the 14 win category.  With a coach like Greg Smith, its hard to see them winning less than 12 games.

In this blogger’s opinion, Donelson, Buffalo, and Wausau seem to be the teams to watch with Kansas and San Pedro C not too far behind.

Why put Wausau ahead of Kansas and San Pedro C?  Two reasons.  First of all, it is widely known that Greg Smith is one of the better coaches in the league.  Second, Wausau has a much tougher schedule (having finished near the top of the conference last season).  If they can make it through their tough schedule, they’ll be tough to top in the playoffs.

The most wide-open division is the John Riggins Division in the OJ Simpson Conference.  Check out those average wins: all 4 teams finished between 7 and 8 wins, on average, with each team winning the division multiple times.  I’m giving the edge towards Real Charleston and Fresno, but who can really tell?

Another tough division battle to watch for is in the Earl Campbell Division.  Tillman and Montcalm should duke it out for their division title all season long.  While Montcalm produced more wins on average, Tillman produced a 9-win season more times than Montcalm’s mode of 7 wins.

The Playoff teams look to be as such:

Walter Payton Conference:

  1. Donelson Warrior
  2. Kansas Jayhawkers
  3. Wausau Blue Bombers
  4. San Pedro Corsairs
  5. Southwest Scorpions
  6. Tennessee Vigilantes
    Other Contenders for a Playoff Spot Include:
  7. Minnesota
  8. New England
  9. Mt. Pilot

OJ Simpson Conference:

  1. Buffalo Blitz
  2. Montcalm Panthers
  3. Death Valley Undertakers
  4. Tillman Rangers
  5. Great Lakes Midshipmen
  6. Real Charleston Galaticos
    Other Contenders Include:
  7. Fresno Outlaws
  8. Saint Gabriel Apostles
Based on a Simulation of 20 Seasons
Team Average
Number of Wins
Most Frequent
Number of Wins
Donelson 14.1 13
San Pedro 11.9 12
Hermitage 5.0 5
Fort Worth 3.2 4
     
Kansas 11.4 13
Minnesota 7.9 9
New England 7.7 7
Mt. Pilot 7.1 7
     
Wausau 9.6 11
Southwest 8.2 8
Tennessee 5.7 8
Knoxville 4.7 6
     
Montcalm 9.6 7
Tillman 8.2 9
North Carolina 5.7 6
Dayton 4.7 5
     
Death Valley 7.9 9
Fresno 7.8 7
Real Charleston 7.6 9
Saint Gabriel 7.3 7
     
Buffalo 12.4 13
Great Lakes 7.8 8
Nashville 6.9 7
Bearden 3.8 4
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1 Comment

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One response to “Donelson to Repeat?

  1. After starting last year 0-3, the eventual SB champ coach told me, damn you’re crappy, it got me fired up and I turned things around. I’m looking forward to the season and I know it will be a battle to make it to the playoffs as there a number of fine teams and coaches. Best of luck to everyone as I hope it’s great season…
    Greg(Wausau)

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