Week 4 Point Spreads
(Favorite in Bold)
(-17) New England @ Donelson – Donelson should continue to roll in this game. Donelson has outscored its opponents by almost 100 points this year — and that’s in just three games. New England finally scored some points in week 3 (helped out primarily by its defense) but they’ll struggle versus a very stout Donelson defense. Donelson should roll and cover.
(-3) Coldspring @ Hermitage – Coldspring should cover in this one, helped by its stout defense and an absentee owner for Hermitage. Coldspring has allowed a league-low 28 points this season. Hermitage lacks weapons on offense, save Andre Johnson. Look for Coldspring to roll over Hermitage, setting up a week 5 matchup of two powerhouses, Donelson and Coldspring – with a perfect record on the line.
(-2) Minnesota @ Fort Worth – Minnesota took one on the chin against Coldspring last week, but looks to rebound against a Fort Worth team that has struggled on defense this season. Fort Worth has some play makers on offense, but lacks on the other side of the ball. Minnesota should improve to 3-1.
(-2) Antelope @ San Pedro C – So far, San Pedro C is underachieving for the second consecutive year. San Pedro was expected to win 12 games this year, as evidenced by the computer simulations, but has yet to win a game. San Pedro’s defense has been woeful, giving up the 2nd most points in the league (despite having one of the better defenses in the league). San Pedro’s offense hasn’t been much better, either. However, Antelope has been dreadful on offense this season, having been eaten up by injuries early in the season. Antelope has a shot in this game, but look for San Pedro C to finally notch one in the W column and take care of business.
(-2) Wausau @ Fresno – This is a tough game for Wausau. Greg Smith’s squad has been involved in close games every week so far this season (losing by 3 to Tennessee, winning by 1 over Knoxville, and losing by 3, in OT, last week). Fresno has been explosive on offense, but has been unable to keep up thanks in large part to its subpar defensive play. Look for Wausau to win another tight one this week–but don’t be shocked if Fresno wins at home.
(-4) Knoxville @ Saint Gabriel – This game should be a close one. The two teams match-up pretty well, but Knoxville has been very efficient on offense this season. Saint Gabriel has weapons on offense, but is lacking a kicker this week – which could end up being the difference in this game. Look for Knoxville to win a tight one.
(-12) Tennessee @ Real Charleston – RC is by far the most surprising team to be sitting at 3-0 headed into week 4. Tennessee is one bad snap away from being 2-1 on the season (which, by most accounts, would be equally surprising). RCG will be halfway to its preseason projection of 8 wins after week 4. Chris Johnson has been unstoppable in the first three weeks and there’s no reason to expect him to slow down against an average front-7 in Tennessee. RCG may not cover in this game, but they should win at home to improve to 4-0.
(-3) Trois-Pistoles @ Bullard – Trois-Pistoles has been another surprising team to this point in the season. Sitting on top of the division at 2-1, TP looks to continue its winning ways on the road in Bullard. Bullard has been tough this season on both sides of the ball, and looks to keep pace with RCG for the division. This game should be one of the closer games of the week – but look for Bullard to win at home.
(-3) Tillman @ Buffalo – One thing is for certain–one of these teams will no longer be undefeated heading into week 5 (unless you don’t consider a tie a defeat). Tillman, as always, boasts a highly competitive squad led by a superb coach. Buffalo, however, has the weapons and looks to be the class of the O.J. Simpson conference. Talent versus Talent, Buffalo wins – hands down. Tillman will put up a fight, but Buffalo will improve to 4-0 (note: Tillman also lacks a kicker in this week’s game).
(-6) Montcalm @ Great Lakes – Great Lakes boasts one of the better squads it has had in year. Were it not for Buffalo, Great Lakes would run away with the division. That being said, Great Lakes must win games like this at home to keep pace in the division. The spread in this one is higher than I thought it would be, with both teams boasting great offenses. The difference in this game will be defense. Great Lakes has one of the best secondaries in the league, allowing a league-low 140 passing yard per game. Look for Great Lakes to improve to 3-1.
(-1) Dayton @ Bearden – One of these teams will win their first game of the season this week. Dayton hasn’t been very good on offense, while Bearden has been downright bad (see: lowest points scored in the league). Bearden has been better on defense than Dayton to this point in the season (helped out by a strong front 7). This should be a low-scoring affair, but I look for Bearden to get its first win at home.
(EVEN) DC @ Nashville – By the numbers, this is the closest game of the week (see: only spread that is a pick). The two teams match up pretty evenly, both teams sporting a strong running game and a subpar passing game. Both defenses are pretty even, as well. Nashville sports a better front 7 than DC, which should help its efforts to slow down the DC backfield and come away with a victory, thanks in large part to its defense.
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