2010 TTFBA Playoff Picture

As a reminder, 6 teams from each conference go to the playoffs.  The top three seeds are the three division winners, with the remaining three seeds being the wild cards.  The top two seeds from each conference receive a bye in week one of the playoffs.  The playoff tie-breaking procedure is as follows:

DIVISION TIES – Two Clubs

1 -Head-to-Head (best won-lost percentage in games between the clubs).
2 -Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3 -Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games if applicable.
4 -Best net points in division games.
5 -Best net points in all games.
6 -Strength of schedule (strongest schedule wins tie).
7 -Best net TD’s in all games.
8 -Last team not to make the playoffs.
9 -Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

Note : If two clubs remain tied after other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie-breaker
reverts to step #1 of two-club format.

1 -Head-to-Head (best won-lost percentage in games between the clubs).
2 -Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3 -Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games if applicable.
4 -Best net points in division games.
5 -Best net points in all games.
6 -Strength of schedule (strongest schedule wins tie).
7 -Best net TD’s in all games.
8 -Last team not to make the playoffs.
9 -Coin toss.

WILD-CARD TIES

– If necessary to break ties to determine the four wild-card teams, the following steps will be
taken.

1 -If all tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie-breaker
2 -If the tied clubs are from different divisions apply the steps below.
3 -When the first wild-card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated each time as
necessary to name the four wild-card teams. In situations where three teams from the same
division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for
subsequent applications of the tie-breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for
a wild-card berth.

Two Clubs

1 -Head-to-Head, if applicable.
2 -Best W-L-T % in common games, 4 min.
3 -Best net points, all games.
4 -Strength of schedule.
5 -Best net TD’s all games.
6 -Last team not to make the playoffs.
7 -Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

Note : Once two teams remain, revert to step #1 in Two Club tie-breaker.

1 -Apply division tie-breaker to eliminate all but highest-ranked club in each division prior to step #1.
The original seeding within a division upon application of the Division tie-breaker remains the
same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the four
wild-card teams.
2 -Head-to-Head sweep (only if one club has either defeated or lost to each of the others).
3 -Best net points, all games.
4 -Strength of schedule.
5 -Best net TD’s all games.
6 -Last team not to make the playoffs.
7 -Coin toss.

Without further ado, let’s look at some of the playoff scenarios currently in place.

Walter Payton Conference (If the season ended today):

1. Donelson Warriors (Division Winner)
2. Wausau Blue Bombers (By virtue of head-to-head tiebreak over Coldspring)
3. Coldspring Chiefs
4. San Pedro
5. Minnesota
6. Trois-Pistoles (By virtue of head-to-head tiebreak over Tennessee–TP also owns division record tiebreak over Tennessee)

OJ Simpson Conference (If the season ended today)

1. Buffalo (by virtue of head-to-head tiebreak over Great Lakes)
2. Tillman
3. Saint Gabriel
4. Great Lakes
5. Montcalm
6. Real Charleston (by virtue of having beaten every club in division)

Scenarios:

Walter Payton Conference

#1
Donelson could lose the #1 seed by losing out and Wausau winning out.  However, Donelson is a heavy favorite in all remaining games and its a longshot that Donelson will lose one, let alone 4 remaining games.

#2
Wausau / Coldspring battling for #2 seed – Wausau pretty much has its division locked up.  Vacant Coldspring has to hold off a surging Minnesota team for its division crown.  Wausau holds head-to-head over Coldspring, therefore Wausau would have to finish with a worse record than Coldspring to lose the #2 seed.  Edge to Wausau in this one.  Wausau’s 4 losses came early in the year and are not indicative of the current team.

#3
Coldspring / Minnesota battling for #3 seed.  Currently, Coldspring holds the head-to-head over Minnesota (with one matchup remaining between the two clubs) and the division lead over Minnesota (3-0 in division, compared to Minnesota’s 2-1).  Coldspring does have some tough games remaining, as does Minnesota.  Edge to Coldspring for this spot.

#4
San Pedro / Minnesota battling for #4 seed.  San Pedro has surged as of late , winning 8 of its last 9 games.  San Pedro C owns the head-to-head over Minnesota, meaning they virtually have a two game lead with 4 remaining.  San Pedro looks solid for this spot.

#5 / #6 Minnesota / Trois-Pistoles / Tennessee / Hermitage / Fort Worth / New England / Knoxville / Antelope
That’s right.  Every team in this conference still has an outside shot at the playoffs, with  Antelope’s looking the most bleak.

What looks realistic?  Minnesota looks to be fairly safe, but Tennessee and TP are nipping at Minnesota’s heels and could unseat them from the playoffs completely.  I’d look at Minnesota for the #5 seed and TP as a strong candidate for the #6.  Tennessee would need a strong finish within the division to unseat TP for the #6.  However, four 5-7 teams are sitting right behind should TP or TN falter the last few weeks of the season.  It is highly likely that a team at 8-8 will claim the final spot here.

OJ Simpson Conference

#1 Great Lakes / Buffalo – These two clubs, sitting atop the division, are also battling it out for the #1 seed.  It will be a hard fall for whomever doesn’t claim the division title here – they will tumble all the way to the #4 seed.  Currently, Buffalo is the favorite here.  On paper, they look to have a better squad and they’ve got the head-to-head over Great Lakes.  However, Great Lakes can make that disappear as they have one game against each other remaining (winner of that game likely wins the division).  Great Lakes must get past a surging San Pedro team this week to stay in contention for #1 seed.

#2 Tillman / Montcalm battling it out.  As it was last year, Montcalm and Tillman are battling for a division crown and first round bye.  Tillman is in control of this spot, currently sitting at 3-0 in the division with one victory over Montcalm.  It would take a Tillman skid and a Montcalm surge for Montcalm to unseat Tillman this year for the division.

#3 Saint Gabriel / Bullard / Real Charleston / Glendora – this is by far the tightest division race in the league.  Saint Gabriel controls its own destiny at 6-6, but the other three teams aren’t far behind, each team sitting at 5-7.  Despite being a game behind, Real Charleston looks to be the favorite for this spot – they currently own the head-to-head and division record over all three other clubs.  With three division games remaining, this race will go down to the wire.

#4 – Runner up in the West Division – no explanation needed.  See above.

#5 – Montcalm / Central Division – Montcalm looks to be pretty solid lock for this spot.  The winner of the central could end up being a 7-9 team.  As discussed earlier, it doesn’t look great for Montcalm to unseat Tillman, but it could happen.  Its also unlikely that any team in the central will unseat Montcalm here, especially considering Montcalm has two games remaining against two teams with a combined three wins.

#6 – Central Division runner up – whoever comes in 2nd in the central looks to be the likely candidate for this position.  Saint Gabriel has the edge, but any one of those teams could end up here.

No chance for the playoffs: Dayton, Death Valley, Bearden, Nashville (while not mathematically elminated, Nashville still has games remaining against Donelson, Buffalo, and Great Lakes).

 

Comments appreciated.

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